These could, in turn, sway the USD's position. In such a scenario, Ukraine's rehabilitation could function as an economic catalyst for the European Union.Īdditionally, the 2024 US presidential elections loom large and might have bearings on the Fed's forthcoming decisions.
However, the cessation of this conflict could unleash substantial economic benefits for Europe. "A significantly weaker US dollar then appears possible." the analyst adds.įurthermore, global geopolitical events, like the Ukraine conflict, have had an ancillary effect on financial markets to date. "In the long term (about five years), the risk of the high US government debt and possible problems in refinancing the debt must also be kept in mind." says Rahner. Overreaching US government debt combined with potential refinancing hurdles can exert downward pressure on the US dollar's strength. While current and medium-term observations offer mixed signals, a lengthier forecast is shaded with uncertainty. The alignment of interest rates between the US and Europe, alongside the diminishing appeal of the USD as a secure financial shelter, points to a probable resurgence of the Euro in upcoming periods.
"The Fed started its interest rate adjustments sooner than the European Central Bank (ECB)." the analyst adds.īerenberg's analysis implies that the Euro's prospects, both in the short and medium term, are capped.
"The US's favourable inflation outlook has played a role." says Arne Christian Rahner, Head of Financial Markets at Berenberg. This descent mirrored Berenberg's prior predictions, with certain influencing factors at play.Ī notable influencer is the US's monetary policies and resultant inflation dynamics. The recent trajectory of the EUR/USD has been noteworthy, note the FX strategists.Īfter a promising climb to 1.1200 mid-year, it subsequently slipped below the 1.1000 threshold. However, by the end of 2023, analysts predict a substantial appreciation of the Euro-Dollar exchange rate to 1.1200. This fiver-year long-term view projects a possible significant weakening of the USD exchange rates. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.Foreign exchange analysts at Berenberg warn of potential challenges for the US dollar (USD) in the longer-term outlook, citing mounting US government debt and possible debt refinancing issues. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. Risk Disclaimers This website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party's services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party's website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content.
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